On my last post, I made sure to make it clear that it "appears" that North Korea had successfully set off a nuclear warhead. Obviously, one can not believe any information released by the North Korean government.
I also, wondered, though, how I would know for sure if they had really accomplished the task. If the US agreed that North Korea had been successful, that is a pretty reliable report. However, if the US says that the test was not successful, can I truly believe them? If any of our allies also report the test was not successful, can we be sure that the heads of these states have not colluded to mis-report the results?
Well - now we have France reporting that the test was either a failure or non-nuclear explosion. Since France is not a friend of the US and works against us, I tend to use that information to think that probably the Heads of state are NOT colluding.
The big problem I still have, though, is Russia has confirmed that test was successful. How does a peon, a regular-Joe, really understand these results and get to the truth of the matter?
As of this writing, I can't find an official response from the US government validating or denying the North Korean claim.
1 comment:
An interesting blog post by libertarian economist Steven Levitt on the issue. He is looking at the economic impact of Wagering on such events, but he does present a good answer as to why there is no official US government response.
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