Some people tend to think that, just like Spain, an attack will prompt people to vote in the appeaser. Others make arguments that an attack will strengthen the resolve of the American people and the will keep the person who has proven to be tough on terror.
Personally, I think it will depend on the size of the attack. I think a small attack or several small attacks where less than 20 people die in each attack will make people lean toward Kerry. These small attacks will be able to be spinned by the media and the appeasers as retaliation for our involvement in Iraq and promise that these attacks will cease when we remove ourselves from that country.
A medium size attack (20-500 people dying) will have no effect on the nation whatsoever. While the media will still try to place the "retaliation spin" on the attack, people will see this as an attempt by the terrorist to affect the election and will vote for whoever they have already chosen so that they can say their decision was not affected.
A large attack (over 500 people dying), though, will be seen as an attack on American values and Western ideas. This will incense the population and prompt rhetoric that promotes revenge and justice. Many people will come to the conclusion that it doesn't matter why they attack us, it only matters that we stop them and we stop them before they get to America. A large scale attack will provide slam dunk speeches for President Bush.
Now, some people might argue that a large scale attack will be seen as a failure of the Bush administration to protect America against terrorism and that a change of administration will fix the intelligent problems. The main problem with this thought is that it presupposes that all terrorist attacks can be prevented. However, the American people are well aware that due its secretive nature and appeal to zealots, terrorism plots are difficult to root out. Many Americans actually expect more attacks. Add onto this the fact that the administration has warned that attacks are expected this summer and have recently acted on reliable information to protect financial institutions from an attack, show an administration actively pursuing the security of America. These facts will prevent the majority of Americans from blaming the current administration.
Meanwhile, I personally pray for a safe election cycle. May the Most High God protect us from His enemy and the minions of Evil.
P.S. - Great Quote from New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg
"The only thing you ever know about security measures is when you didn't take enough. You never know when you took too many of them. We do what we think is appropriate."
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